Despite a challenging outlook for global smartphone shipments this year, Apple may have a major opportunity on the horizon.
Analysts have raised concerns that rising memory component prices could increase smartphone costs and weaken consumer demand. However, experts at Morgan Stanley and Bank of America believe Apple could offset these pressures with a key upcoming product: its first foldable iPhone, expected to launch later this year.
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring said in a recent note that Apple’s entry into the foldable smartphone market could significantly expand the category, potentially doubling its size by the end of fiscal 2027. He also estimates that foldable devices could generate between $40 billion and $60 billion in revenue for Apple over the next 18 months.
Interest among consumers already appears strong. Data from Morgan Stanley’s AlphaWise Smartphone Survey shows that 27% of global iPhone users—and as many as 40% in China—are “extremely interested” in a foldable iPhone.
Apple’s stock rose 1.4% on Monday, reflecting growing investor optimism around the potential new product.
The buzz around foldable devices comes at a time when Apple and other smartphone manufacturers are facing rising costs for memory chips, a critical component in modern devices. While Apple has long-term supply agreements in place, it remains uncertain how long the company can shield itself from increasing costs—or whether it may eventually pass those costs on to consumers.
According to the International Data Corporation, the global smartphone market is expected to contract by about 13% in 2026, partly due to these pricing pressures.
Apple would be entering the foldable market later than its competitors. As Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan pointed out, companies like Samsung and Huawei introduced foldable smartphones as early as 2019, helping drive strong demand—particularly in China, which accounted for roughly half of global foldable smartphone shipments in 2025, based on IDC and Morgan Stanley Research data.
Mohan also expects Apple to adopt a more staggered release strategy for future iPhones, aiming to reduce “very high demand on the supply chain” at peak launch periods followed by sharp slowdowns.
