President Trump now faces an important decision about Iran.
About ten days ago, he said the United States was ready to help Iranian protesters if their government attacked them violently. The president said, “locked and loaded and ready to go.”
That statement came before Iran’s violent crackdown had really started. Now, as shocking details emerge about what’s happening there, the world is watching to see what Trump will do next.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “Nobody knows what President Trump is going to do except for President Trump. The world can keep waiting and guessing.”
Top officials plan to present the president with possible options on Tuesday. When speaking to reporters on Air Force One on Sunday, Trump mentioned he was considering “some very strong options.”
After the successful capture of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, which the president called one of the most successful US operations in history, there must be a strong temptation to use military force.
The US has proven it can strike from far away. Last summer, B-2 stealth bombers flew 30-hour missions all the way from Missouri to drop powerful bombs on two major Iranian nuclear facilities.
The US could choose similar strikes or more targeted attacks on those responsible for hurting protesters. Washington likely has a long list of potential targets ready.
Pentagon officials, speaking to CBS News, say the response might include secret methods like cyber attacks and psychological operations designed to disrupt and confuse Iran’s leadership.
However, one option that’s almost off the table is anything like what happened in Caracas on January 3rd.
Even though recent American and Israeli attacks have weakened Iran, it’s not Venezuela. Removing one leader probably won’t make the whole country follow Washington’s orders.
Trump recently mentioned Jimmy Carter’s failed 1980 attempt to rescue American hostages in Iran, showing he understands the dangers of putting American troops on Iranian soil.
Eight American servicemen died when a helicopter and transport plane crashed in Iran’s desert during that mission.
That failed operation, combined with the embarrassment of seeing hooded American hostages on TV in Tehran, played a big role in Carter losing the election that year.
Trump told New York Times journalists last week: “I don’t know that he would have won the election, but he certainly had no chance after that disaster.”
But 46 years later, there’s a bigger question behind Washington’s military planning: what does the Trump administration actually want to accomplish in Iran?
Will Todman, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: “It’s hard to tell exactly what course of action Trump is likely to take, given we don’t know what his full aim is here.”
Todman believes President Trump probably wants to change Iran’s behavior rather than overthrow the government.
“I think the risks of regime change are so great that I don’t yet believe that is his primary objective here,” he said. “It could be more concessions in the nuclear talks. It could be to stop the crackdown. It also could be to try to implement reforms that lead to… some sort of sanctions relief.”
Trump has said some Iranian officials have reached out wanting to negotiate, probably to keep the talks going about the country’s nuclear program.
Leavitt said on Monday: “What you’re hearing publicly from the Iranian regime is quite different from the messages the administration is receiving privately,” adding that diplomacy was “always the first option.”
According to the Wall Street Journal, Vice President JD Vance is among the senior advisers pushing Trump to try diplomacy first.
Vance told reporters last Thursday: “The smartest thing for them to have done is for them to actually have a real negotiation with the United States about what we need to see when it comes to their nuclear program.”
But if the violent crackdown in Iran continues, choosing diplomacy might look like weakness.
Todman explained: “If it’s not sufficient, it demoralises protesters.”
With horrible stories coming out of Iran despite the internet being blocked, the president has said he might need to act before trying diplomatic options.
Some experts think a limited military strike could encourage the protesters while warning Iran’s government that worse could follow.
Bilal Saab, from Chatham House, said: “All Trump has to do is shoot to cause panic inside the regime.”
“A US strike could embolden the protesters and distract the regime,” he added.
However, Saab warned that military action could also backfire.
“It could harden the resolve of the regime and its still-large support base across the country. A rallying around the flag wouldn’t be shocking,” he said. “That’s more likely… if the strike is symbolic or a one off.”
These are complicated choices for the president, made harder because Iran has threatened to fight back against any American attack.
Despite damage from Israeli and American strikes, Iran still has many ballistic missiles.
Throughout the Middle East, some of Iran’s allies are gone – like Syria’s former President Bashar al-Assad – or weakened, like Hezbollah in Lebanon. But the “Axis of Resistance” can still cause trouble.
The Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq can still take action.
One person urging President Trump to act strongly is Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last king, who wants to lead Iran away from rule by clerics.
Pahlavi told CBS News: “The president has a decision to make fairly soon.”
“The best way to ensure that there will be less people killed in Iran is to intervene sooner,” he said. “So this regime finally collapses and puts and end to all the problems that we are facing.”
It sounds simple. But White House officials know it’s anything but simple.
