Wall Street’s largest bank is sending a clear signal to investors: sell this flying car stock. At the same time, billionaire investor Cathie Wood is quietly increasing her stake in the same company, investing millions in its long-term potential. The company at the center of this debate is Joby Aviation (JOBY), which develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft — a technology many believe could transform urban air mobility.
The contrast between caution from JPMorgan Chase and Wood’s strong conviction highlights a bigger question for investors: should they bet on disruptive innovation or take the safer route?
JPMorgan grows cautious on Joby Aviation
After Joby released its fourth-quarter earnings, Bill Peterson from JPMorgan reduced his price target on the stock to $7 from $8 while maintaining an “Underweight” rating. Although the bank acknowledged the company’s progress during the quarter, Peterson warned that Joby’s spending is expected to rise as it expands manufacturing and moves closer to launching commercial operations. He also noted that much of the company’s long-term success may already be reflected in its share price, leaving limited upside in the near term.
During the fourth quarter, Joby reported revenue of $31 million, representing a 35% increase from the previous quarter. The figure included $21 million from Blade operations and $10 million from other sources, including $8 million generated from one-time demonstration flights in Japan.
However, the company’s operating expenses climbed 16.6% sequentially to $238 million in Q4. Joby recorded an adjusted EBITDA loss of $154 million and a GAAP net loss of $122 million.
Cash usage during the quarter totaled $157 million, compared with $147 million in the third quarter. Looking ahead, Joby expects to spend between $340 million and $370 million in cash during the first half of 2026, excluding a $33 million facility purchase.
These rising expenses are a key reason for JPMorgan’s cautious outlook, as Joby’s short-term performance will largely depend on how effectively it executes its commercialization plans. Another major bank, Deutsche Bank, has also lowered its price target on the stock to $6 from $7 while maintaining a “Sell” rating.
Cathie Wood increases her bet
Despite Wall Street’s skepticism, Cathie Wood continues to build her position in Joby Aviation. Recently, her firm Ark Invest purchased roughly $7.6 million worth of Joby shares, strengthening her long-term investment in the emerging urban air mobility market.
Joby now represents about 1.7% of the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF and 2.8% of the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF.
Wood has built her investment strategy around companies focused on disruptive technologies, particularly those reshaping transportation and electrification.
Joby recently reached a key milestone by producing its first aircraft that complies with standards from the Federal Aviation Administration. The aircraft has already completed all Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) testing, and the company improved its progress in FAA Stage Four certification by 18 points, bringing it closer to the final stage of approval.
Commercial expansion plans accelerate
The company’s commercial rollout is also moving quickly. Joby plans to begin carrying its first passengers in Dubai later this year as part of an exclusive six-year agreement.
In addition, the company has been selected for the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, a government initiative that allows early operations in up to 10 U.S. states, including Florida, Texas, New York, and Arizona. The company expects to begin flights within 90 days after final agreements are finalized.
To prepare for future demand, Joby has agreed to acquire a 728,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Dayton, with a goal of producing four aircraft per month by 2027.
At the end of the fourth quarter, Joby reported $1.4 billion in cash and short-term assets, which it plans to use to fund certification efforts and scale manufacturing. The company has also formed strategic partnerships with Uber, Delta Air Lines, Blade Air Mobility, and Toyota to support its commercialization plans.
Compared with Archer Aviation (ACHR), another major player in the eVTOL market, Joby appears to be further along in certification and infrastructure preparation. Still, analyst opinions differ between the two companies.
While Archer Aviation currently holds a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, Joby Aviation remains more controversial on Wall Street, with analysts generally rating the stock a “Hold.” Among the 11 analysts covering the company, six rate it a “Hold” and three recommend a “Strong Sell.” On the bullish side, one analyst gives it a “Strong Buy” and another suggests a “Moderate Buy.”
The average price target for JOBY stands at $11.94, implying potential upside of about 17.5%. The most optimistic estimate of $18 suggests the stock could climb as much as 77% over the next year.
In line with Cathie Wood’s long-term investment philosophy, her confidence in Joby is based on the company’s potential first-mover advantage in certification, manufacturing scale and regulatory partnerships — rather than concerns about its short-term cash burn.
Disclaimer: The views expressed on Realmwire are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. No specific outcome or profit is guaranteed.
